Starting from 11 November, stakeholders from politics, business and science will meet at the United Nations Climate Change Conference COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan. In view of the extreme climate and weather events that we experienced in 2024, it seems more important than ever that the participants commit to consistent measures and take swift and binding action to limit global warming and its consequences for humans and nature. COP29 will therefore focus on concrete approaches for climate protection, but also on the fair financing of measures to mitigate and adapt to climate change and its consequences.

Climate change and biodiversity

The United Nations Biodiversity Conference in Cali, Colombia, ended at the beginning of November with mixed feelings. Important resolutions could not be passed, for example on the financing of nature conservation measures. However, the participating countries were also able to get some things off the ground, for example the strengthening of the rights of indigenous communities and the close interlocking of biodiversity conservation and climate protection. The preservation of biodiversity and our natural habitats will therefore continue to be an issue at COP29. AWI ecophysiologist Hans-Otto Pörtner took part in the conference in Cali and will also be present in Baku. He calls for decisive actions to make up for lost ground and limit climate change and its damage: “Slowing down, delaying and burying our heads in the sand are currently the dominant strategies in international climate policy and to some extent at national level too. The world's nations should include the foundations of human and natural existence in their constitutions and leave no room for harmful behavior in this standardization.” This would the only way to ensure that new economic developments are only permitted with renewable energies and to put an end to fossil fuels in the medium term. “Social and international balance is essential on the way there. Democracy, climate protection and biodiversity conservation together form the foundation of a healthy society and its healthy natural resources.”

Fair climate financing

“Money” will be a dominant topic at COP29 in Baku this year. This is because the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are faced with the task of setting a new global target for international climate financing from 2025. This was set at COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009: Industrialized nations should provide 100 billion US dollars per year starting from 2020 for “developing countries” so that they can implement climate change mitigation and adaptation measures. However, various demand forecasts show that the 100 billion US dollars are by far not enough if the global community remains on its current emission path. The expenses would have to increase at least tenfold in order to meet the climate targets of the Paris Agreement. “We need a real quantum leap in global climate finance and a new approach for a sustainable, international climate finance architecture. Ways must be found to move from billions to trillions of US dollars in financial aid for developing countries in the next half of this decade,” says Reimund Schwarze from the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ).

Greenhouse gas emissions must decrease, new focus: methane

Anthropogenic emissions are currently the driving force behind global warming. Above all, the avoidance of carbon dioxide (CO₂) is often the focus of climate protection efforts. At COP29, another greenhouse gas is now also being looked at more closely: Methane (CH₄). "Methane is the most important greenhouse gas after CO₂. Although emitted in lower concentrations, each CH₄ molecule has 27 times the climate impact of a CO₂ molecule," says Lona van Delden, permafrost researcher at AWI. 

And more and more methane is emitted into the atmosphere. For example, from stockbreeding or industry, but increasingly also from natural sources such as wetlands and thawing permafrost, where large amounts of carbon are stored. Climate change is warming polar regions in particular almost four times faster than the rest of the world: the soils are beginning to thaw and release the stored carbon as greenhouse gases such as CO₂ and CH₄. "The available data models agree that the permafrost region is increasingly becoming an important source of methane and thus largely neutralizes the CO₂ uptake by boreal forests and wetlands in the northern latitudes," says Lona van Delden. 

The COP will focus on how the global community can rapidly reduce methane emissions. "In such a context, it is essential to strengthen observation networks such as the World Meteorological Organization's Global Greenhouse Gas Watch to make up-to-date, scientifically sound data available to researchers, policy makers and the general public, especially from these vulnerable and remote polar regions."

Climate-friendly industry and plastics agreement

COP29 will also focus on how climate and biodiversity protection can be combined with the economy. A climate-friendly industry is not only necessary to reduce emissions, but also to preserve resources and the environment. This could be achieved through an effective circular economy that starts with the raw material extraction, pays attention to climate-friendly processes during production and extends the life cycle of products in order to avoid waste. The discussions at COP could be directly taken into account in the negotiations of the United Nations, which will be seeking a binding agreement to curb plastic pollution from 25 November in Busan. AWI marine biologist Melanie Bergmann will accompany the German delegation. To her it is clear that the production of plastic must be greatly reduced in order to effectively solve plastic pollution: “For the global plastics agreement, it is important to set ambitious goals that take the entire life cycle of plastic into account; from the extraction of raw materials to the production in the factory and subsequent use right through the end, be it on a deposit side, an incinerator or in recycling.”

Global Carbon Project

At COP28 in Dubai, the international community decided to end the fossil fuel era with a massive expansion of clean and renewable energies by 2030. But: Despite advances in clean and renewable energies, the growing consumption of oil and natural gas is boosting global fossil emissions. By 2024, they will be higher than ever before. This is the result of the latest report that the Global Carbon Project presented at the COP.

The consistent high emissions and climate change are putting pressure on natural sinks on land and in the oceans. For example, in the past decade, the oceans have absorbed 10.5 metric gigatons per year on average, or 26 percent of overall emissions. “In the last ten years, climate conditions have reduced the oceans’ capacity to absorb CO2 by roughly 6 percent,” says Prof Judith Hauck, an environmental researcher at the AWI, who coordinated the content on the ocean sinks.

An important contribution to the assessment of the global ocean sink CO2 was data that was collected by the Malizia racing sailing team in cooperation with AWI oceanographer Léa Olivier from Alexander Haumann's working group. He emphasizes how important the ocean is for us: “The global ocean is the life insurance of our planet. It has greatly slowed down global surface warming. However, this service comes at a high cost: The ocean is acidifying, which poses a threat to ecosystems and ocean biodiversity; and the ocean is overheating, which leads to oxygen depletion, sea level rise, and an increase in extreme events. The latter include droughts, forest fires, and flooding, which are already becoming more frequent and will become even more frequent in the future.

More on the report of the Global Carbon Project
Further informatiopn in the cooperation with Malizia

Cryosphere at a Tipping Point for Irreversible Loss and Damage

How strongly do the current and ongoing climate changes affect the snow and ice regions of our planet? The latest State of the Cryosphere Report 2024, published on 12 November, provides insights and warns of vastly higher impacts and costs to the global economy given accelerating losses in the world’s cryosphere. The most recent cryosphere science updates from 2024 show that the longer the global temperature stays at 1.5°C higher than pre-industrial level, the greater the risk of crossing tipping points for the Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets, many land glaciers and AMOC. Permafrost thaw increases with every fraction of warming – with no sudden “tipping point” and no “safety margin.” And each rise in atmospheric CO2 increases the acidification of the polar oceans.

Over 50 leading cryosphere scientists, including from AWI, contributed to the report that the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative (ICCI) presented at COP29. The full report, figures and background material can be found here: https://iccinet.org/statecryo24/.
 

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