The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), also known as the oceanic conveyor belt, plays a central role in the global climate system by transporting enormous amounts of heat. Global warming is expected to weaken the AMOC, which could lead to serious climatic changes in Europe. A current study in the journal Physical Review Letters shows that the AMOC under the influence of global warming shows regional and disproportionately abrupt shifts, contrary to the previous results of a long-term and smooth decline.
“We investigated the AMOC using high- and low-resolution climate simulations,” says Ruijian Gou, a guest PhD student at the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI). Small ocean eddies in particular have a significant impact on the AMOC dynamics. For example, an increase in regional AMOC can be observed in the Nordic Seas, while an abrupt decrease occurs in other regions. The authors findings emphasize the need for high-resolution climate simulations to accurately capture and understand the complex behavior and interactions of AMOC variability at different scales. “Only through such detailed modelling can we accurately predict future changes and estimate potential consequences in the climate system,” the lead author of the new study concludes.
Original publication
Ruijian Gou, Gerrit Lohmann, and Lixin Wu: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation decline: Tipping small scales under global warming; Physical Review Letters (2024). DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.133.034201